A new tool looks at various factors about you, your commute, and your company and can spit back a usually jaw-dropping number about how much money you would keep in your pocket if your work arrangement got more flexible.
“Wunderkind” and “prodigy” are among the superlatives often attached to Nate Silver. After pioneering a system for baseball prediction, he leapt into the public eye (and became a bit of a nerd icon) by calling 49 of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election. And though he becameone of Time magazine’s 100 Most Influential People and landed a New York Times gig for his prognostication prowess, Silver takes a dim view on prediction.
“We need to stop and admit it: we have a prediction problem,” he writes in the introduction to his new book, The Signal and the Noise. “We love to predict things–and we aren’t very good at it.”
The diagnosis comes from a collective failure to foresee epochal events–say the September 11 attacks or the 2008 financial crisis–and a political culture rife with constantly forecasting (and consistently wrong) experts. The solution, he says, requires a change in attitude, one that emphasizes probability.
Subliminal Ad Experiment — Duke University
Here’s a fascinating (and creepy) experiment that suggests that subliminal perception really does work.